Political analysts at the University of Virginia say President Donald Trump is not gaining ground on Democrat Joe Biden as Nov. 3 draws closer.

“You have to say that Biden’s lead, if it’s not solidifying, it certainly has been stable, and I tend to think a stable lead is almost solidified to a certain degree, maybe a great degree,” said Dr. Larry Sabato, founder and director of the U.Va. Center for Politics.

“It’s very bad news for President Trump that he can never seem to get out of the low forties,” Sabato said Thursday during the eighth episode of a webinar on the 2020 elections.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a newsletter publication of the U.Va. Center for Politics, has updated its electoral ratings for the presidential race, giving Biden an edge in states with 290 electoral votes — 270 are needed to win the presidency.

The latest Crystal Ball ratings have moved the pivotal state of Arizona from  tossup to “leans Democrat.”  Bill Clinton was the last Democrat to win Arizona in 1996.

Georgia, a traditional GOP state, has been changed from “leans Republican” to tossup. The last Democrat to win Georgia was Clinton in 1992. 

New Hampshire has also moved to “likely Democrat” after originally being labelled as a tossup.

But Sabato says the “hidden Trump vote” may come into play in key swing states like it did in 2016 when he scored an upset win over Hillary Clinton.

Trump lost the popular vote, but he won the Electoral College.

Hidden voters are Trump supporters who will not disclose their political preferences to pollsters.     

With the hidden votes  factored in, Sabato says Trump gains another 2 to 3 percentage points and it puts his support level where it was four years ago.

“Except that the third-party candidates are much weaker and therefore, he will need upper-forties to win. And getting that last few percent for him is going to be very difficult, because almost everyone has their feet in stone,” Sabato said.

RealClear Politics, which is an aggregate of polls broken down into a average, showed Biden with a 10-point advantage (52.3 percent to 41.7 percent) over Trump nationally on Monday.

The Crystal Ball rates five states as tossups — Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa and Ohio. Maine’s 2nd Congressional District is also rated a tossup.

“It seems like the numbers have gotten a little bit better for Biden,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the Crystal Ball in reference to Biden’s lead in national polls.

“[Biden’s] lead in the key swing states is a little bit smaller which indicates the president may have a little bit of an advantage in the Electoral College, but the president needs these numbers to tighten,” Kondik said.

And in the battle over control of the Senate, the Crystal Ball ratings have Democrats with 49 seats and Republicans with 49. The two tossup states are North Carolina and Iowa, the publication says.

Kondik and Sabato said the presidential race could influence the Senate elections. Senate and House races tend to closely follow the presidential race on election day, they noted.

“Even though in polling, sometimes it looks like there is a considerable gap between the presidential candidate of either party and the parties’ candidates for lower offices, that’s what often closes, even on election day,” Sabato said.

“When people enter that booth or even when they are filling out their absentee ballot, they often stay in one column. I guess the juices get flowing, the partisan juices, and in this very partisan, polarized age that we are in, I don’t expect more than a few percent difference between the Senate candidate’s performance and the presidential candidate of that party,” he said.

The Senate is currently comprised of 53 Republicans and 45 Democrats, along with two independents who side with the Democrats.

Thirty-five Senate seats are up for election this year.